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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like♏ that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is d🧜etermined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a topꦉ team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the sameᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚ conversion of chance🏅s.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to ♛that teams perform especially well ಞat home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a🀅 match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now am🏅ounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins are based upon༺ a one-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches r🎃esult🤡 ins draw. By implication 75% of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted𝓀 to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Ex𓄧traordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on 🔯average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informa❀tive for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amounꩵt of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better cꦡonversion.
The market value of a team as determined b✱efore the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thum🔯b: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performanꦐce level of a team do𝓡es exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performaꦦnces of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of o🔥ffense and defense are correlated.
Withou♋t effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would peꦕrfectly predict the performance level.
Th༒e goal difference is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day 🥂to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rar🍬e
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not appl🦹y for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective 🧸goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march t๊hrough“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effec🎶tive differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the s🐬eason..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins and becomes German champion at thౠe end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for ꦕbogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is enough for today, we will let y🦋ou know another rime.